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Excerpt:
The July Retail Sales report revealed a drop of 1.1%, disappointing analyst expectations, as spending on goods fell from June’s lofty levels. Consumers ventured out to bars and restaurants, but online shopping dipped a material 3.1% month-on-month. The market will soon shift its focus to how the back-to-school season unfolded amid rising COVID-19 Delta variant cases.
Many unknowns lie ahead through year-end. With supply-chain bottlenecks and labor shortages still impacting the domestic economy, this year’s holiday shopping season will be particularly uncertain:
- Will consumers purchase ahead more than usual?
- Does persistent inflation find its way into the retail space?
- How are companies preparing for what should be extremely strong demand given more than $2 trillion of excess savings in the coffers of Americans?
For insight into these concerns, traders will want to pay close attention to Same Store Sales (SSS) data, upcoming retail earnings reports and consumer-related conferences to manage risk.